18 June 2022 - 17:36

Macro indicators reflect prospect of Iranian economic outlook

Despite economic hardships of people, macro indicators indicate improving situation and proper movement of these indicators to solve basic problems of country.
News ID : 133671

IBENA- Country's economy has chronic difficulties in recent years, some inappropriate practices have exacerbated these problems; people are under pressure factors such as high inflation are not secret; But proper and scientific review of government's performance must be based on macroeconomic variables and indicators, Planning and Budget Organization) PBO (said in a report.

The most important problem the government faced from beginning was treasury with a negative fund that even faced payment of salaries with, but and if. Due to difficulties in financing current costs, most development projects were dormant. In total, more than 60,000 billion tomans of allocation was left in treasury without resources, and government had to think about increasing income in addition to saving in order to run the country.

Meanwhile, high issuance of financial securities in previous government had practically caused a commitment to repay between 10 to 12 thousand billion tomans per month, and 13th government had to repay 535 thousand billion tomans of previous securities. Jihadi actions and expert plans of 13th government, in second six months of 1400, compared to same period of previous year, government revenue increased by 102 percent, and focusing on reviving oil sales, oil revenues and petroleum products during this period 1,443 Percentage increased.

To help stock market conditions, government sold less financial securities, and revenues from this area declined by 5 percent; In other words, government did not look at income and cost from stock market. Development and employment credits at the end of year hit a historic record and reached more than 200 trillion tomans, and in second six months, credit of capital assets increased by 63 percent.

The most important cause of inflation was growth of liquidity due to borrowing from central bank; The 13th government was started when in the first five months of year, 54,000 billion tomans of central bank salaries were spent by previous government; This salary, of course, was settled by 13th government at the end of 1400. The previous government borrowed more than 23,000 billion tomans from Central Bank in April 1400, and in May 1400 this figure reached 39,000 billion tomans. This is while in first two months of 1401, 13th government did not use even one Rial of central bank resources to finance its costs.

On the other hand, as repaying principal and interest of bonds issued by previous government, sales and transfers of Islamic financial bonds in 1400 decreased by more than 12 percent, which indicates an increase in share of stable income in government spending. Apart from improving macro-budget indicators, i.e. reducing dependence on oil revenues; Reducing issuance of bonds; Historical record of allocation of construction budget and non-borrowing from central bank, status of macroeconomic indicators is also better.

Volume of foreign trade from September 1400 to May 1401 compared to same period of last year increased by more than 36 percent and exports amounted to 39 billion and 474 million dollars with a growth of 31 percent during this period. The average economic growth in the last two governments was 0.4 percent, or about zero, and this figure has reached 4 percent in the thirteenth government; In the previous 4 years of government, average growth of capital formation was negative, meaning that capital formation could not even compensate for the depreciation of capital.

volume of foreign trade has increased by more than 5 percent from September 1 to May, compared to same period of last year, with an increase of 2 percent to $ 5 billion. The average economic growth in the last two governments is about 2.5 percent, about zero, and that figure in 13th government has reached 2 percent; In the previous five years, average growth of capital formation was negative, meaning that capital formation has not even been able to compensate for depreciation of capital.

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